ERNST & YOUNG'S 10 GLOBAL MACRO TRENDS.......VERSUS MINE
It was interesting......no, disappointing ....to see Ernst & Young's 10 Global Macro Hospitality Trends released earlier this week apparently contributed by their representatives from Asia (actually Japan), Australia, Europe (actually Germany), India, Caribbean (actually Miami), Latin America (actually Miami) the Middle East (actually UAE) and Russia.
These are not Global Trends, they are observations from one perspective.
Here are their Top Ten.
- Supply playing Catch-up.
- Luxury Brands...in the Fast Lane.
- Increased Construction costs.
- Creative control of Operating Costs.
- Capital global.
- Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative.
- Transaction Environment
- Private Equity - non-Traditional
- Condo hotels' growing pains
- Disaster resiliency
To my way of thinking, they appear very much like USA-centric thoughts rather than Macro Global Trends and it appears as if their foreign representatives had little to contribute.
THE TOP TEN FROM THE DAVID MCMILLAN GROUP
Here are the Top Ten Global factors that will drive the trends in hospitality from my point of view,
- Labour & Skills shortages. Will reach 10 million in 5-7 years and will result in hotel & restaurants closing, exploding labour rates, global employee passports and aggressive retention of mature workers. The current shortage is currently at about 2 million.
- Chinese dominate tourism. All major destinations will become China-friendly quickly and ownerships will adopt Chinese partners to attract patronage, Mandarin will be taught in Western schools. Operators are scrambling to manage now.
- Mixed Use . The combination of transit, residential, fractional, full-service, limited service and 5 Star/2 Star will drive development. The result....free hotels built by the neighbours.
- Destinations created in wilderness. New money creates destinations anywhere and old destinations will have to get creative (see # 5). If you have no islands, create them. There is now a direct link between Hospitality & Entertainment. Competition is exploding for everyone relying on foreign markets.
- Creative Reinvention. Prisons and incinerators are game for interesting transit and destination properties. Schools, universities, hospitals & churches may follow.The opportunities for re-thinking every position abound from home-office or airport check in to receptionsts making beds & serving drinks.
- Global Interference International Organisations will implement standards, regulatory rules and consumer 'wishes' as technology facilitates global governments. Most is driven by developing countries & consumer groups and the industry is mostly indifferent (see # 10).
- All inclusive is not sustainable. Community integration will drive future destinations to ensure resorts are community-inclusive and local attraction-inclusive, and not foreign cultural bubbles.
- Cookie-Cutter products in the decline. With a possible bow to a brief period of Fortune Cookie-Cutter Chines-isms, innovative new products and technology is encouraging differences, not standardisation.
- Industry losing focus on Hospitality The industry is specialising and moving to Real Estate and owners' Exit Strategies and they are no longer 20-25 years. Leaders are rarely coming from the industry and owners and brand operators have completely different interests.
- Chain Ownership. Publicly owned chains' interests are vastly different from owner operated private firms. Employees of public companies have different interests to those owners whose hotels and employees are family.
The next 10 are just as relevant as the first 10.
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